The National Academy of Public Administration, the IBM Center for The Business of Government, and the IBM Institute for Business Value recently hosted a spring event, AI, Water, and Wildfires: The New Frontlines. This event, which launched the second report in a series of work on Future Shocks, was hosted in recognition of Earth Day and is the latest in our ongoing initiative working to identify practical steps that governments should take to address society’s most significant challenges.

We were honored to have Dr. Louis Uccellini, the former Director of the National Weather Service, provide opening remarks on key lessons learned from the creation of NWS’s Weather Ready Nation. We were grateful for an energetic conversation with a group of panelists—some of whom had been awarded Challenge grants to produce case studies included in the report—about what communities need to do in an age of an increasing number of costly disasters:

• Dr. Wendy D. Chen, Tenured Assistant Professor, Texas Tech University
• Dr. Keri K. Stephens, Professor and Distinguished Teaching Professor, The University of Texas at Austin
• Dr. Samanta Varela Castro, The University of Texas at Austin
• Dr. David Bray, Academy Fellow & Chair of the Accelerator at the Stimson Center
• Mark McLaughlin, IBM Technology, insurance industry SME
• Christopher Jones, Founder and Executive Director, Conversa Corps, Inc

Collectively, the participants offered critical strategic observations. First, artificial intelligence (AI) is an important capability that governments, community organizations, and responders can use to improve water management and emergency response. Second, collaboration between levels of government and communities is a key factor driving successful emergency preparation and response. Together, these actions can help address one of the Grand Challenges in Public Administration to Build Resilient Communities.

The case studies and conversation yielded important lessons learned as described below.

AI Has a Growing Role in Disaster Management

AI is increasingly utilized to improve data collection and communication during disasters, helping to analyze large data sets to improve decision-making. Open-source models, forecasting, real-time data, and the crowdsourcing of environmental risks can be leveraged to enhance decision-making. In Jakarta, Indonesia, for example, a web-based platform (PetaBencana.id) with real-time flood risk information has been utilized by millions of residents during emergencies. Similarly, NASA and IBM Research’s AI foundation model for weather and climate, Prithvi WxC, has been used to predict extreme weather events and facilitate preparations for likely impacts.

Community Engagement & Intergovernmental Collaboration Makes a Major Difference in Outcomes

Involving local community stakeholders throughout the disaster preparedness and response process is critical. For example, communities in Jakarta built trust through active engagement in data collection for the PetaBencana.id platform. This engagement increased the platform’s effectiveness and facilitated adaptation to dynamic environments and emerging challenges. Along the same lines, Colorado has increased drought resilience by increasing state-local collaboration in land use and water supply management. The state did this through establishing—and achieving—a goal for 75 percent of the state’s residents to live in communities that incorporate water-efficient actions into their land use planning by 2025. As a result, water providers throughout the state moved toward land use efforts to reduce water use. Communities also benefit from working with the insurance industry to manage risks and increase affordable insurance availability.

Weather Forecasting Must Be Connected to Communities

The National Weather Service (NWS) has increasingly connected its forecasts with local leaders and communities, which has resulted in more actionable information being disseminated. Recognizing that forecasts and warnings alone are not enough, the NWS’s Weather Ready Nation initiative provided Impact Based Support Services to not only provide the best forecasts in the world, but also establish relationships oriented around partner needs and risk preferences. This has helped to facilitate proactive steps, such as staged evacuations, that have saved lives and reduced economic losses during disasters. In May 2019, Kansas City had no fatalities amidst 434 tornados. Emergency managers in this community and others have pointed to NWS partnerships as a critical ingredient in preparing for and responding to disasters to save lives and property.

Rural Areas Face Unique Challenges

Rural areas face unique challenges in disaster management due to their spread-out populations, making effective communication and preparedness more difficult. For example, the rural community of Fort Hancock, TX’s lack of access to traditional flood data sources has made it difficult to get assistance from public and private flood prevention programs.

To address this challenge, a research team from state universities worked with the community on a social cartography project to generate an updated flood map. This comprehensive database of flood event images is now being used for resilience planning and funding applications to help the community. This is an example of how it’s possible for communities and researchers to work together to help flood-prone communities that have traditionally been underserved.

In conclusion, this event and the case study report reveal that it’s both important and possible for stakeholders to work together to address community resilience challenges. There is so much to be learned from local leaders, civil servants, technologists, and emergency responders. We at the Academy and IBM are excited about continuing to highlight leading practices in addressing complex problems and to demonstrate the ways that digital technologies can be leveraged to protect communities before, during, and after extreme weather events.